What a Trump win means for horticulture

The Nov. 8 election surprised many, with Donald Trump coming from behind to defeat favored Hillary Clinton for the presidency. In addition, Republicans kept their hold on both the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate. Republicans now have a unified hold on the U.S. executive and legislative branches of federal government.

A Trump presidency and the many Republican down-ballot victories have the potential to shake up the green industry.

Craig Regelbrugge, senior vice president of advocacy and research with AmericanHort, anticipates the election’s outcome will have significant impact — most positive, but with some trouble spots. 

“Many have grown weary of eight years of a ‘regulatory juggernaut’ that was especially challenging in the labor and environmental regulation areas,” Regelbrugge says. “Beyond some of the rule changes themselves, we’ve had major concerns with employers being exposed to greater and greater litigation risks by activists.”

On the whole, the green industry should see opportunities for a more business-friendly environment. Don’t expect change overnight, though, especially in the area of unions and unionization.

“The National Labor Relations Board has been hyperactive and hyper-partisan with decisions favoring unions and unionization,” Regelbrugge says. “It will take some time for the composition of the NLRB to achieve more balance, but it will happen.”

Having the executive and legislative branches of the U.S. government aligned in the same direction could lead to less gridlock and more movement on traditionally sticky issues. Regelbrugge says that’s a reasonable expectation, especially if House Republicans retain Paul Ryan as Speaker of the House.

“Ryan is ideologically anchored but policy oriented and will understand the need for balance and avoiding overreach,” Regelbrugge says. “There is still a check-and-balance in the Senate, in that leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will likely have 52 votes, and key procedural motions require 60.  So if new minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and his 47 colleagues are unified, there’s some firewall there.”

Regelbrugge is optimistic about Schumer, and believes the two sides may be able to work together, something that rarely happened with the outgoing minority leader, Harry Reid (D-Nev.).

“Reid’s relationship with McConnell was truly toxic; they were best described as ‘two scorpions in a bottle,’ he says. “Schumer is a wily and effective legislator, but also a dealmaker at heart.”

The Trump wild card

Of course, the elephant in the room is President-elect Trump. During his campaign, immigration was one of his biggest focal points, and one of the most divisive planks in his platform. The horticulture industry has been attempting to reform immigration for years, and if Trump holds to his campaign promises, it could create major labor problems.

“While wide majorities of Americans support reforms consistent with those we have sought over years, the Trump campaign really doubled down on harsh immigration rhetoric, and it will be hard to walk that back,” Regelbrugge says. “The real challenge here is that Trump has surrounded himself with advisors cut from the most extreme cloth on this issue.  It’s almost sure to be an ‘enforcement first’ approach — not just walls or barriers on the border and deportation of criminal aliens.”

Regelbrugge says the industry could see an early push to make the E-Verify program mandatory for all employers, and rapid escalation of worksite enforcement. This could take the form of raids, or I-9 audits ("silent raids”).

This approach could lead the green industry into dangerous territory.

“We all support a secure border, but if Congress goes along with a pure enforcement-first approach, the economic implications could be huge, especially for industries like ours that heavily rely on foreign-born labor and are already struggling with shortages,” Regelbrugge says. “Such an approach could also overburden and 'crash' the limited legal visa programs now used by our industry, as demand spikes and outstrips capacity. Maybe Trump won’t go there, but he is surrounded by advisors who will push for it.”

Watch for more coverage of the election’s ramifications and a legislative update in the December issue of Nursery Management.