Trump threatens 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada in move that could hurt horticulture

On Monday, Nov. 25, President-elect Donald Trump posted to his Truth Social social media platform that he intends to impose tariffs of 25% on all products entering the United States from Mexico and Canada.

The move, he explained, would be one of "many first Executive Orders" that would occur on Jan. 20, Trump's first day of his second term in office.

"... I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders," Trump wrote. "This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!"

Pressure on peat?

The emphasis on "all products" entering the country from its nearest trading partners is of particular concern for the horticulture industry. The majority of peat used by growers is sourced from Canadian peat bogs and imported to the U.S. from the north. From the south, many growers receive plugs and starts produced in Mexico by plant brands. 

A 25% tariff on these products would increase input costs significantly — a major concern when it comes to peat. The cost of peat spiked significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic before stabilizing in the past year.

A 25% tariff on peat paid by importers would inevitably increase the price of both raw peat and peat mixes crucial to the industry. Those costs would either have to be absorbed by growers or passed on to their customers by increasing plant prices. 

Asha Hingorani, president of the Canadian Sphagnum Peat Moss Association, echoed those concerns.

"The Canadian horticultural peat industry is concerned by the impact that potential tariff implementation could have on its U.S. grower and retail customers. The industry is thus working closely with federal and provincial governments to ensure customers are least affected and that they maintain a continuous supply critical to them," she said. "Canadian peat is a unique natural resource serving as a significant contributor to America’s food security and well-being and is the substrate of choice used to grow and produce fruits and vegetables, mushrooms, soil amendments, cannabis, flowers and reforestation seedlings," 

Industry responds

Advocacy leaders from AmericanHort stressed they will continue to work with political leaders to address potential consequences from the implementation of tariffs.

"AmericanHort is concerned about the impact these potential tariffs may have on the supply chain and the goods used by its members," said Matt Mika, vice president of advocacy and government affairs, in a statement. "We are engaging with the USDA, USTR and the Commerce Department to assess how these tariffs will affect American agriculture and horticulture. Additionally, we are working with members of Congress and relevant committees to address potential consequences for the agricultural supply chain. Many of our members are international dealers and customers, and these tariffs raise significant concerns, particularly given the experience with similar tariffs during the first Trump administration."

Advocacy groups outside of the horticultural industry have already sounded the alarm on Trump's tariff plans. In a study released Nov. 4, the National Retail Federation said the proposed tariffs could cause American consumers to lose between $46 billion and $78 billion in spending power each year the proposed tariffs are in place.

“Retailers rely heavily on imported products and manufacturing components so that they can offer their customers a variety of products at affordable prices,” NRF Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a NRF press release. “A tariff is a tax paid by the U.S. importer, not a foreign country or the exporter. This tax ultimately comes out of consumers’ pockets through higher prices.” 

Fentanyl and immigration blamed

The incoming president was clear that the tariffs are retaliation for what he perceives to be an unrestricted flow of the drug fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the United States. But recent data is at odds with Trump's statements. 

In terms of fentanyl smuggling, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security has noted that the vast majority of the drug is seized from American citizens during legal border crossings. In a March 2024 report, the department said that "more than 90% of interdicted fentanyl is stopped at Ports of Entry (POEs) where cartels attempt to smuggle it primarily in vehicles driven by U.S. citizens."

It is unclear how tariffs would decrease smuggling through points of entry by American citizens.

There is also conflicting information regarding illegal immigration across what the president-elect has characterized as "open borders." In a Nov. 19 news release, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported that border crossings are on the decline. 

"Since the June 4 Presidential Proclamation on Securing the Border and accompanying Interim Final Rule, which was finalized Sept. 30 subsequent to an updated Proclamation, went into effect, there has been a continued, meaningful decrease in unlawful border crossings," the department reported," including a more than 55% decrease in encounters between ports of entry along the southwest border through Nov. 19."

They tariffs would not be in effect until an executive order is signed.

This story is ongoing and will be updated as new information or comments are received.

Patrick Alan Coleman is editor of Greenhouse Management magazine. Contact him at pcoleman@gie.net.