Talkin' About Trends

As we turn the calendar to 2012, the lawn and garden market clearly stands at a crossroad. Coming on the heels of nearly four years of unstable economic conditions and two straight selling seasons of hellish weather almost nationwide, the year approaching very likely will make or break the industry as we know it.

Or …

And, we're voting for "Or …" here, it will reshape it in manners previously unimaginable. While it would be folly to fail to recognize the challenges facing commerce in general (and our market in particular) the silver lining that has emerged from the recent dark clouds is the notion that we still offer products customers want. Now we just have to find a way to make those shoppers visit more often to buy more of them.

To that end, the staff at Garden Center recently sat down to discuss—quite literally—some of the trends and strategies likely to shape 2012 for better or worse. We're hoping that the inherent mix of perspectives—and the subsequent rating and debating that falls in line with it—won't just be interesting, but useful.

Or …

And, again, we're voting for "Or …" here, inspirational and provocative and insightful and, most of all, profitable. Definitely, most of all, profitable.

Yale Youngblood, publisher/editor: To start this exchange, I'd like to suggest that the single most-influential trend facing retailers of all sorts this year is what I like to call "the changing of the customer guard." We've already seen a transition as Baby Boomers move on to the next phase of their lives and are being replaced by Gen Xers. This shift has so many ramifications, but none, to me, as significant as the fact that there just aren't as many Xers as there were Boomers. Simple math laws are at work here, and retailers have to come up with a way (A) to get customers to come to the store more often than they're accustomed, and (B) to spend more once they get there. Consequently, I'd put the onus for 2012 on marketing and merchandising strategies from the get-go.
 

Sarah Martinez, managing editor: What Yale says is true. The proverbial "changing of the guard," which was talked about for years has finally come to pass. Marketing will be essential to bring in this new generation of customers. But it won't be enough. Relationship building—in person and online via social networks—will be crucial.

Bland proclamations ("20-percent off all shrubs!") mean nothing to the Gen X public. Look around at the marketing messages that resonate with this demographic. They seem to fall into two categories: (1) "This is cool because…" or (2) "This is important/helpful/meaningful to me because…"

In 2012, I predict that more garden centers will get on this solution/benefit-oriented bandwagon.

YY: To carry the topic further, I believe strongly in the notion that successful retailers are the ones that have become "bi-lingual," in that they speak one language to their Boomer customers and another, completely different, language to the Xers. Everyone has started paying lip service to the social media movement, but I don't see very many garden centers that have taken the appropriate steps to adequately engage young shoppers. Sarah is 100-percent correct that cool and meaningful are the new "hooks." That's what young shoppers (and by young, I mean the 30-somethings that are now at a point where they can consistently buy a garden center's wares) look for. And they look for it via a completely different means of communication than has been used by their predecessors. Sarah certainly knows this, because that's how she communicates.

SM: Now, on to another bold trend prediction: The rise of "garden-center-plus." Over the past two years, I've noticed that garden retailers who are surviving—and thriving—offer more than standard garden fare. These businesses are garden centers "plus."

Plus what? Many things, really. Garden center +farm market, +gift store, +urban homestead supplier, +gourmet store, +gift center, etc. The "plus" is limited only to the retailer's imagination. This added-value element makes the business especially compelling to a new breed of consumers. And the "plus" factor almost always includes merchandise that compels customers to keep coming back. Whereas a visit to a garden center is a twice-a-year trip, the garden-center-plus model becomes a monthly (or more) shopping stop.

YY: Yeah, I definitely agree that plus equals success, or at least a chance at success, especially with today's busier-than-ever customer who has become more discerning about her shopping options, be she a Boomer or an Xer. My wife, the consummate garden center shopping enthusiast, doesn't visit just twice a year; it's in her blood, and she is still a regular patron of places that provide her a "gardening fix." If that fix is exponentially grander than what's available elsewhere, she's definitely "in." The key, I think, isn't just the fact that you offer "more" but that you offer "better." You don't just sell stuff; you sell lifestyle. The products provide solutions. The displays inspire ideas. The experience convinces the shopper that she, too, "can do that" … I think that's vital to today's retail store, no matter how big you are or how many different things you offer. Most of the better garden centers I've visited are veritable amusement parks for grownups. Speaking of amusements, Sarah, what do you see being among the trendy "stuff" for 2012?

SM: Something I've found especially notable the past few months is the trend of putting plants in anything BUT standard pots. This is particularly evident when you browse the gardening page on Pinterest (http://pinterest.com). Plants are in glass jars, metal buckets, wooden boxes—heck, even stacks of old tires.

Don't misunderstand—it's not exclusively repurposed things that are being transformed into containers. Consumers are picking up anything they think is cool at IKEA, Target, Pottery Barn, etc., and popping a plant into it.

The takeaway for 2012? Jazz up your container selections by introducing different shapes, sizes and materials. And—it pains me to say this—don't think like a horticulturist when making these merchandise selections. Yes, certain shapes and sizes are best for plant health. But many of your customers are thinking "What matches my décor theme in the kitchen?" not "Which of these pots provides superior drainage?"

YY: I'll see your containers and raise you three continuing trends. Anything "vertical gardening" will be as strong as it was last year—probably stronger. I also believe miniature and fairy gardens will continue to ride a tall wave in 2012 (which makes for an interesting visual, when you think about it). And I've seen ample indication to suggest that the raised bed garden will be as strong as ever, especially as it relates to edibles. Want to take on some plant trends next?
 

SM: Succulents will continue to be hot, hot, hot. They're everywhere—home/garden magazines, catalogs, websites, etc. Consumers love the unusual shapes, sizes, colors and forms of these plants. (Which are low-maintenance to boot.)

Compact vegetable and herb varieties will also be big in 2012. Edible gardening in small spaces is still very trendy, and I expect it will stay on consumers' radars for the next couple of years.

An emerging trend to watch for: The rise of the roses. And I'm not talking about no-fuss, no-muss shrub roses. I mean honest-to-blog collector-type roses: hybrid teas, floribundas, grandiflora and the like. Based on what I'm reading and hearing from my peers, roses are considered worth the effort—especially if they yield fabulous cut-flowers for centerpieces. For some reason, rose care is more palatable than deadheading and dividing perennials. Go figure.

YY: From what we're hearing from the good folks at Anthony Tesselaar, two plant colors will be all the rage in 2012: black and amber. Think amber heucheras, the amber Flower Carpet roses and other plants with amber tones. Both hues make sense; black petunias were very much the eye-catchers at the Spring Trials, and amber provides vibrant color during an era when the mood around the country tends toward gray. I also think combo planters of all sorts are, as they say in the movie "Oh Brother, Where Art Thou," bonafide. You get great color mixes with low maintenance in one handy package. Now, let's play "Hot or Not." I'll say a potential trend, and you tell me your gut reaction. I'll start with an old stand-by, wind chimes.

SM: Not. But I would say wind "art"—not necessarily musical—trends toward hot. My turn. Fountains—hot or not?

YY: Big fountains—most big ticket items, for that matter—are still a "not." We're still not at an economic point nationally where indulgence trumps practical. Smaller, self-contained fountains, on the other hand, will continue to be a "hot." How about birding and nature products?

SM: Hot. I see continued interest in this category among Gen Xers and their kids. Attracting wildlife (birds and such) in the garden is still of interest. What do you see in the future for fertilizers, growth products, etc?
 

YY: As long as there are plants, there will be a market for fertilizers. I'll add a caveat, though: I think the organic movement will only grow more prominent as we head into 2012, as those same young customers to which you referred seem to be very mindful of environmental protection. Organic/natural/fill-in-the-eco-friendly-term fertilizers, especially, will be the plant enhancement products du this jour and many jours to come. A bonus that comes with that development is that the margins tend to be better, as folk see value in natural products and will pay more for them. OK, your turn: If you could place a bet on one home and gift accent for 2012, what would it be?
 

SM: It would be wise to bet on owl-themed décor and accents for the coming year. Your take?

YY: Owls, huh? Who knew? (Get it: Who knew?). Seriously, I'm going to go with the decorative container. As you noted earlier, things that weren't even designed to be planters are now en vogue as planters, but even those items that were created to hold plants have become more alluring on the patio/deck—to the point that some of them are almost as eye-catching as the plants themselves. We need to wrap up here, and I think we'd be remiss without offering at least one prediction each for 2012. Here's mine: The year coming will forge a transformation from the garden center to the solution center all around the country. Given that we need to attract more people to the place, and then get them to spend more money while at the place, the retailers that offer solutions will be the big winners next year.
 

SM: Good call, Yale. My final trend-prediction for 2012 is The Rise of the Herb Garden. I believe the veggie-garden craze has leveled off, as folks tire of the work and cost of a full-fledged vegetable patch. Herbs, however, offer more rewards for less effort. Spiral-shaped herb gardens, windowsill herb planters and herb container gardens are all over the Internet and splashed on the pages of home and garden magazines. The National Garden Bureau saw this coming, and proclaimed 2012 to be the Year of the Herbs. I agree wholeheartedly.