Boxed in: 2025 Axiom Gardening Outlook Study explores big box vs IGCs

This is the second in a three-part series looking into the results of the 2025 Axiom Gardening Outlook Study. Part 3 will be published in the coming weeks. Read Part 1 here.

Big-box stores and independent garden centers have a natural rivalry, almost like cats and dogs.

To extend the metaphor, we’ll say that the big box is the dog in the scenario. It wants to appeal to everyone; it’s clumsy in the way it moves through the world; and when they get too big, they can be pretty intimidating.

Independent garden centers are more cat-like. They’re smaller; they have a niche of incredibly devoted fans; and they tend to build connections with their specific people rather than trying to please everyone, everywhere.

According to the 2025 Axiom Gardening Outlook Study, much like Americans tend to own more dogs, gardeners tend to buy more frequently at big-box stores.

“This is where our garden centers need to sit up in their chairs and pay attention,” explains Axiom Marketing Founder and CEO Mike Reiber. “Home Depot is number one in plants and supplies.”

When asked where they bought most of their garden supplies in 2024, 32% of respondents said Home Depot. Lowe’s and Walmart were second and third place, capturing a respective 19% and 17%. Independent garden centers ranked fourth at 12%, above grocery stores, online sales, farm stores and hardware stores.

On the plant side, Home Depot came out on top again, with 34% of respondents saying they bought most of their garden plants from the big-box store in 2024. Lowe’s lagged far behind at 16% but was followed closely by IGCs at 15%.

But there was a reversal when respondents were asked where they found the highest-quality plants.

Independent garden centers had the edge on plant quality at 30% compared to Home Depot’s 25%. Those standings remained the same when respondents answered where they found the “most knowledgeable associates to answer your gardening questions.”

Home Depot remained in second place with 24%, while IGCs captured 26%. In a related question concerning the most important place to learn about new plants and gardening supplies, “websites” were top with 28%, but IGCs beat Home Depot again with 17% to the big box’s 12%.

The study delves into an IGC-specific question. When gardeners were asked why they went to IGCs, 30% reported going for more plant choices. That was followed by new plant choices (17%) and help in choosing the right plant for the garden (14%).

For Reiber, the numbers offer important guidance to IGC owners. He suggests the play in coming years is for IGCs to lean into those qualities that are most valuable to gardeners.

“I believe that the independent garden centers need to explain why their plant quality is higher,” Reiber says. He notes that if IGCs are grower-retailers, they should let customers know their plant material is grown on site. If not, “Tell them about your grower and what is important to them. Tell them what the rock star varieties for your region are," he adds.

In Reiber’s analysis, it’s all dependent on the strength of IGC communication. What’s unique about the smaller businesses is that they can be far nimbler in how they communicate compared to a large corporation with extensive layers of management and internal checkpoints.

One place to win the battle, according to Reiber, is online. He notes that when it comes to garden plants, the big-box store websites are often difficult to navigate and have very little information about the plants they sell.

“If you do not have a good website for your garden center that says what you have available and why it's different, you're losing people,” he says.

Also, Reiber notes that the generations most likely to increase how many plants they are buying and expand their gardens are millennials and Gen Z. These highly motivated younger gardeners are focused on YouTube and shortform videos for information, according to the study.

“If they're not on YouTube with their videos, they’re missing an opportunity,” he says of IGCs. “You got a lot of youngsters like to do videos? Let them. Let them do the video. Let them post little 60-second phone video clips about what plants they like or what's happened in the store. Let them do that because they're good at it.”